نمذجة شدة حوادث الطرق الحصوية باستخدام بارامترات عشوائية
المؤلفون: أسامة أبو داوود، أوتارا روي، خالد قصيباتي
المجلة: المجلة الإماراتية للهندسة المدنية وتطبيقاتها
المجلد: المجلد 2 العدد 2
الكلمات الدالة: سلامة الطرق الحصوية، شدة التصادم، عدم التجانس غير الملحوظ، المعلمات العشوائية، الانحدار اللوجستي
خلاصة
تُعد حوادث الطرق الحصوية من مخاطر السلامة على الطرق، وترتفع احتمالية وقوع وفيات وإصابات خطيرة في مثل هذه الحوادث مقارنة بحوادث الطرق المعبدة. بحثت الدراسات السابقة في العوامل المساهمة التي تؤثر على شدة حوادث الطرق الحصوية. كانت هناك مجموعة واسعة من العوامل المساهمة مثل ظروف الطريق، والظروف الجوية، ونوع المركبة، وسلوك السائق وخصائصه، والسمات الهندسية للطرق، والتضاريس، والظروف البيئية التي تم بحثها. ومع ذلك، لم تأخذ أي دراسات سابقة في الحسبان عدم التجانس غير الملحوظ في بيانات التصادم أثناء نمذجة شدة التصادم على الطرق الحصوية. استخدمت هذه الدراسة نموذج اللوغاريتمات الثنائية ذات المعامل العشوائي والمعروف أيضًا باسم نموذج اللوغاريتمات المختلطة لنمذجة شدة حوادث الطرق الحصوية في وايومنغ. تمت دراسة وتحليل بيانات حوادث الطرق الحصوية من وزارة النقل في وايومنغ من عام 2010 إلى عام 2019. تم تطوير كل من نموذج الانحدار اللوجستي الثنائي ونموذج الانحدار اللوجستي الثنائي المختلط. وقد وُجد أن نموذج الانحدار الثنائي اللوجستي المختلط يناسب البيانات بشكل أفضل من حيث جودة إحصائيات الملاءمة. أظهرت النتائج أن حوادث الاصطدام بالدراجات النارية كانت أكثر عرضة للوفيات والإصابات الخطيرة. بالإضافة إلى ذلك، وُجد أن المنحنيات الأفقية والسائقين الذكور لها تأثير كبير على شدة حوادث الطرق الحصوية. تم العثور على سيارات الركاب كمتغير عشوائي من نتائج نموذج الانحدار اللوجستي الثنائي المختلط. بالإضافة إلى ذلك، وُجد أن وجود منحنى أفقي هو أكثر العوامل المساهمة في زيادة احتمال حدوث إصابات طفيفة أو محتملة في حوادث الطرق الحصوية. علاوة على ذلك، وُجد أن وجود ثلوج على سطح الطريق له تأثير كبير على زيادة احتمال وقوع حوادث تلفيات في الممتلكات فقط. ستكون النتائج التي تم التوصل إليها في هذه الدراسة مفيدة في تحديد التدابير المضادة الفعالة التي من شأنها تقليل شدة حوادث الطرق الحصوية. وبالتالي، فإن تطبيق حدود السرعة المتغيرة في موقع المنحنيات الأفقية وفي وقت تساقط الثلوج سيعزز سلامة الطرق الحصوية.
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