Net Zero Emissions: A New Colonial-Style Deal for the Global South – An Article by H.E. Dr. Abdulla Belhaif Al Nuaimi

The concept of net zero emissions has become one of the most influential ideas shaping contemporary climate policy. What began as a scientific term referring to balancing emissions with removals has now evolved into a political and ethical framework that defines the global response to the climate crisis.

For Africa and developing countries (the Global South), net zero is no longer merely an environmental target. It has become a gateway to broader debates around climate justice and compensation for the damages caused by more than a century and a half of industrial pollution since the Industrial Revolution.

This article explores how the concept of net zero has become linked to the idea of compensating African countries for climate-related damages, and examines the ongoing debate surrounding its effectiveness and implications.

1. Historical Responsibility: Who Polluted, Who Pays?

Africa contributes less than 4% of historical global emissions, despite being home to 17% of the world’s population. Yet it is among the regions most exposed to the impacts of climate change and the least capable of adapting to or mitigating its risks, due to a range of factors, including:

• Prolonged droughts
• Devastating floods
• Declining agricultural productivity
• Threats to food security

By contrast, industrialized nations built their wealth on the use of coal, oil, and gas since the Industrial Revolution.

With the growing adoption of the net zero framework, a fundamental question has emerged:
If the world must reach net zero emissions, who bears the cost of this transition? And who compensates those already suffering the damage?

This question is grounded in the principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities” enshrined in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

2. Net Zero Exposes Africa’s Climate Finance Gap

Achieving net zero requires massive investments in renewable energy, climate-resilient infrastructure, climate-smart agriculture, early warning systems, and mechanisms to address loss and damage.

However, Africa faces major financial constraints, including high borrowing costs, limited fiscal space, pressing development priorities, and an inability to fully capitalize on its natural resources.

Although climate finance to Africa increased from USD 29.5 billion in 2019–2020 to USD 43.7 billion in 2021–2022—a 48% increase—this remains far below the continent’s actual needs. United Nations estimates indicate that Africa requires more than USD 250 billion annually for adaptation alone.

3. The Loss and Damage Fund: An Institutional Bridge for Compensation

The establishment of the Loss and Damage Fund at COP27 (Egypt) marked a historic turning point, following the refusal of some Global South countries to endorse the conference’s final declaration.

For the first time, industrialized nations explicitly acknowledged that certain climate damages are beyond adaptation, that countries least responsible for the crisis suffer the greatest losses, and that compensation is a necessity—not an option.

A. Arguments in Favor of Net Zero

1. A Clear Scientific Target
   Climate models confirm that global warming only stabilizes when emissions reach net zero. This provides the world with a concrete objective, rather than vague calls to “reduce emissions.”
2. A Unified Global Framework
   Net zero has become a shared language among governments, corporations, and financial institutions.
3. An Opportunity for Africa to Leapfrog the Old Industrial Model
   Net zero could open the door to:

• Large-scale investments in renewable energy
• Job creation aligned with future economies
• Improved access to energy
• Infrastructure development

4. A Tool for Claiming Compensation
   It enables Africa to assert a clear principle: those who caused the crisis must finance the solution.

B. Arguments Against Net Zero

1. A Potential Tool for Delaying Action
   Some governments and companies use net zero commitments to justify continued pollution today in exchange for future promises of carbon removal.
2. Overreliance on Carbon Offsets
   Many net zero strategies depend on offset projects in Africa, raising serious concerns about:

• The long-term capacity of African forests to absorb carbon
• The rights of local communities
• The actual effectiveness of such projects
• Climate justice
• Dependence on immature or unproven technologies

The Risk of “Green Colonialism”

If African lands are used to offset the emissions of others without fair compensation, net zero becomes a new form of exploitation—one the continent has long endured, with severe and lasting consequences.

5. The Climate Finance Gap

Despite recent increases, climate finance remains far below Africa’s needs, as highlighted in reports by the United Nations and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).The central challenge for Africa remains ensuring that net zero becomes a tool for justice, not a new mechanism for exploitation—or a modern colonial bargain disguised as Net Zero.